Can Tampa Recover?
by Ross Bratin
Monday, November 22 3:00pm
The Tampa Bay Rays have been a great story over the past 3 seasons. A team that was perpetually the doormat of the AL East won their division 2 of the last 3 years and even made a World Series in 2008. But once the Rays lost their ALDS matchup with the Texas Rangers in 5 games, the harsh realities of the coming off-season became apparent. The Rays announced they planned on cutting payroll by at least $10 million from the around $70 million payroll that they currently had. That means that some of biggest players, who are free agents, will most likely be forced to depart. The question then becomes who within the organization that can replace such integral parts.
The first and obviously most important player that they will lose is left fielder Carl Crawford. Crawford played at an MVP level throughout the season with .307/.356/.495 with 19 HRs and 90 RBIs. Down the stretch, he batted .376/.422/.604 in order to help the Rays win the AL East. He also provides a strong defensive presence in the outfield that will be hard to replace. The Rays are hopeful though that they could possibly replace him in the outfield with Desmond Jennings. In his 109 games for the AAA Durham Bulls, Jennings went .278/.362/.393 while hitting 3 HRs and 36 RBIs. While he doesn't currently have the same power as Crawford, his power will come once his body fills out. He does have the speed though that will aid him in replacing Crawford. Jennings had 37 stolen bases while in Triple-A and that speed will also come in handy while playing the outfield at Tropicana. The problem for him has really been staying healthy. Early on Jennings suffered back and shoulder issues, but he has luckily stayed healthy for the past two years. He will be a much more cost effective option to Crawford, who looks to receive around a $100 million deal from some team like the Red Sox and Angels.
The second major loss that could occur would be Carlos Pena. Pena was a huge contributor for the 2008 Rays by mashing 31 homers and had a peak of 46 homers for the 2007 Rays. This year though he dipped in production, only managing to hit .190/.325/.407 with 28 homers. While they have no one that could take over for Pena this year, they do have Matt Sweeney. Sweeney came over to the Rays from the Angels as part of the Scott Kazmir deal. His development has been hampered by the fact that he blew out his knee in 2008 and missed some time as well in 2009. He also currently plays third base, but due to the fact that he slow footed and that Evan Longoria plays third, he will probably have to move to first. He has power and split time this year between Single-A Charlotte and Double-A Montgomery and didn't fare so well in either. He only had a combined eight home runs in both leagues. Once he gets back on his developmental track and fully recovers from that knee injury, he should be able to develop into a solid first baseman. This is fine with projections showing that Pena might resign with the Rays due to his poor season.
The final major subtraction that could occur is Rafael Soriano. Soriano came to the Rays via a trade with the Atlanta Braves during the off-season and made an instant impact. He would save 45 games (third in MLB) with a 1.73 ERA during the season. Closers are one of the easiest positions to create due to the fact that you can take a failed starter and covert them to the closer's position a la Mariano Rivera. Within the organization, there aren't many current starters that fit the mold of a closer. Instead a possibility could be Winston Abreu. Abreu spent last season with the Triple-A Durham Bulls and collected 23 saves and a 2.28 ERA. He also was the 2009 Triple-A Relief Pitcher of the Year. The major problem is that he will be 34 at the start of the 2011 season, which is not ideal for your closer of the future. He could though act as a stop gap until a better closer can either be developed or acquired from another team. Soriano will probably move on and capitalize on his big year to get himself a nice multiyear deal.
In the end the Rays' current regime will make the right decision. They have scouted well in the past with Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, David Price, and Carl Crawford having come from their minor league system. Even if these three prospects don't fit into their system, they have the potential to get others via a trade. There have been talks of possibly trading Upton, James Shields, or Matt Garza in order to restock their minor leagues. Whatever Andrew Friedman and company decide to do, they plan on keeping the Rays in contention while at a reasonable price.
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